Efficacy and Safety of Anticoagulation Treatment in COVID-19 Patient Subgroups Identified by Clinical-Based Stratification and Unsupervised Machine Learning: A Matched Cohort Study.

Objective: To explore the efficacy of anticoagulation in improving outcomes and safety of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in subgroups identified by clinical-based stratification and unsupervised machine learning. Methods: This single-center retrospective cohort study unselectively reviewed 2,272 patients with COVID-19 admitted to the Tongji Hospital between Jan 25 and Mar 23, 2020. The association between AC treatment and outcomes was investigated in the propensity score (PS) matched cohort and the full cohort by inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) analysis. Subgroup analysis, identified by clinical-based stratification or unsupervised machine learning, was used to identify sub-phenotypes with meaningful clinical features and the target patients benefiting most from AC. Results: AC treatment was associated with lower in-hospital death risk either in the PS matched cohort or by IPTW analysis in the full cohort. A higher incidence of clinically relevant non-major bleeding (CRNMB) was observed in the AC group, but not major bleeding. Clinical subgroup analysis showed that, at admission, severe cases of COVID-19 clinical classification, mild acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) cases, and patients with a D-dimer level ≥0.5 µg/mL, may benefit from AC. During the hospital stay, critical cases and severe ARDS cases may benefit from AC. Unsupervised machine learning analysis established a four-class clustering model. Clusters 1 and 2 were non-critical cases and might not benefit from AC, while clusters 3 and 4 were critical patients. Patients in cluster 3 might benefit from AC with no increase in bleeding events. While patients in cluster 4, who were characterized by multiple organ dysfunction (neurologic, circulation, coagulation, kidney and liver dysfunction) and elevated inflammation biomarkers, did not benefit from AC. Conclusions: AC treatment was associated with lower in-hospital death risk, especially in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Unsupervised learning analysis revealed that the most critically ill patients with multiple organ dysfunction and excessive inflammation might not benefit from AC. More attention should be paid to bleeding events (especially CRNMB) when using AC.

Efficacy and Safety of Anticoagulation Treatment in COVID-19 Patient Subgroups Identified by Clinical-Based Stratification and Unsupervised Machine Learning: A Matched Cohort Study

Objective: To explore the efficacy of anticoagulation in improving outcomes and safety of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in subgroups identified by clinical-based stratification and unsupervised machine learning. Methods: This single-center retrospective cohort study unselectively reviewed 2,272 patients with COVID-19 admitted to the Tongji Hospital between Jan 25 and Mar 23, 2020. The association between AC treatment and outcomes was investigated in the propensity score (PS) matched cohort and the full cohort by inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) analysis. Subgroup analysis, identified by clinical-based stratification or unsupervised machine learning, was used to identify sub-phenotypes with meaningful clinical features and the target patients benefiting most from AC. Results: AC treatment was associated with lower in-hospital death risk either in the PS matched cohort or by IPTW analysis in the full cohort. A higher incidence of clinically relevant non-major bleeding (CRNMB) was observed in the AC group, but not major bleeding. Clinical subgroup analysis showed that, at admission, severe cases of COVID-19 clinical classification, mild acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) cases, and patients with a D-dimer level ≥0.5 μg/mL, may benefit from AC. During the hospital stay, critical cases and severe ARDS cases may benefit from AC. Unsupervised machine learning analysis established a four-class clustering model. Clusters 1 and 2 were non-critical cases and might not benefit from AC, while clusters 3 and 4 were critical patients. Patients in cluster 3 might benefit from AC with no increase in bleeding events. While patients in cluster 4, who were characterized by multiple organ dysfunction (neurologic, circulation, coagulation, kidney and liver dysfunction) and elevated inflammation biomarkers, did not benefit from AC. Conclusions: AC treatment was associated with lower in-hospital death risk, especially in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Unsupervised learning analysis revealed that the most critically ill patients with multiple organ dysfunction and excessive inflammation might not benefit from AC. More attention should be paid to bleeding events (especially CRNMB) when using AC.

Early identification of patients with severe COVID-19 at increased risk of in-hospital death: a multicenter case-control study in Wuhan.

BACKGROUND: Most evidence regarding the risk factors for early in-hospital mortality in patients with severe COVID-19 focused on laboratory data at the time of hospital admission without adequate adjustment for confounding variables. A multicenter, age-matched, case-control study was therefore designed to explore the dynamic changes in laboratory parameters during the first 10 days after admission and identify early risk indicators for in-hospital mortality in this patient cohort. METHODS: Demographics and clinical data were extracted from the medical records of 93 pairs of patients who had been admitted to hospital with severe COVID-19. These patients had either been discharged or were deceased by March 3, 2020. Data from days 1, 4, 7, and 10 of hospital admission were compared between survivors and non-survivors. Univariate and multivariate conditional logistic regression analyses were employed to identify early risk indicators of in-hospital death in this cohort. RESULTS: On admission, in-hospital mortality was associated with five risk indicators (ORs in descending order): aspartate aminotransferase (AST, >32 U/L) 43.20 (95% CI: 2.63, 710.04); C-reactive protein (CRP) greater than 100 mg/L 13.61 (1.78, 103.941); lymphocyte count lower than 0.6×109/L 9.95 (1.30, 76.42); oxygen index (OI) less than 200 8.23 (1.04, 65.15); and D-dimer over 1 mg/L 8.16 (1.23, 54.34). Sharp increases in D-dimer at day 4, accompanied by decreasing lymphocyte counts, deteriorating OI, and persistent remarkably high CRP concentration were observed among non-survivors during the early stages of hospital admission. CONCLUSIONS: The potential risk factors of high D-dimer, CRP, AST, low lymphocyte count and OI could help clinicians identify patients at high risk of death early in the hospital admission. This might assist with rationalization of health care resources.

The modified NUTRIC score can be used for nutritional risk assessment as well as prognosis prediction in critically ill COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In the newly emerged Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) disaster, little is known about the nutritional risks for critically ill patients. It is also unknown whether the modified Nutrition Risk in the Critically ill (mNUTRIC) score is applicable for nutritional risk assessment in intensive care unit (ICU) COVID-19 patients. We set out to investigate the applicability of the mNUTRIC score for assessing nutritional risks and predicting outcomes for these critically ill COVID-19 patients. METHODS: This retrospective observational study was conducted in three ICUs which had been specially established and equipped for COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. The study population was critically ill COVID-19 patients who had been admitted to these ICUs between January 28 and February 21, 2020. Exclusion criteria were as follows: 1) patients of ＜18 years; 2) patients who were pregnant; 3) length of ICU stay of ＜24 h; 4) insufficient medical information available. Patients' characteristics and clinical information were obtained from electronic medical and nursing records. The nutritional risk for each patient was assessed at their ICU admission using the mNUTRIC score. A score of ≥5 indicated high nutritional risk. Mortality was calculated according to patients' outcomes following 28 days of hospitalization in ICU. RESULTS: A total of 136 critically ill COVID-19 patients with a median age of 69 years (IQR: 57-77), 86 (63%) males and 50 (37%) females, were included in the study. Based on the mNUTRIC score at ICU admission, a high nutritional risk (≥5 points) was observed in 61% of the critically ill COVID-19 patients, while a low nutritional risk (<5 points) was observed in 39%. The mortality of ICU 28-day was significantly higher in the high nutritional risk group than in the low nutritional risk group (87% vs 49%, P ＜0.001). Patients in the high nutritional risk group exhibited significantly higher incidences of acute respiratory distress syndrome, acute myocardial injury, secondary infection, shock and use of vasopressors. Additionally, use of a multivariate Cox analysis showed that patients with high nutritional risk had a higher probability of death at ICU 28-day than those with low nutritional risk (adjusted HR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.22-3.32, P = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of critically ill COVID-19 patients had a high nutritional risk, as revealed by their mNUTRIC score. Patients with high nutritional risk at ICU admission exhibited significantly higher mortality of ICU 28-day, as well as twice the probability of death at ICU 28-day than those with low nutritional risk. Therefore, the mNUTRIC score may be an appropriate tool for nutritional risk assessment and prognosis prediction for critically ill COVID-19 patients.

Characteristics of Liver Function in Patients With SARS-CoV-2 and Chronic HBV Coinfection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a major global health threat. We aimed to describe the characteristics of liver function in patients with SARS-CoV-2 and chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) coinfection. METHODS: We enrolled all adult patients with SARS-CoV-2 and chronic HBV coinfection admitted to Tongji Hospital from February 1 to February 29, 2020. Data of demographic, clinical characteristics, laboratory tests, treatments, and clinical outcomes were collected. The characteristics of liver function and its association with the severity and prognosis of disease were described. RESULTS: Of the 105 patients with SARS-CoV-2 and chronic HBV coinfection, elevated levels of liver test were observed in several patients at admission, including elevated levels of alanine aminotransferase (22, 20.95%), aspartate aminotransferase (29, 27.62%), total bilirubin (7, 6.67%), gamma-glutamyl transferase (7, 6.67%), and alkaline phosphatase (1, 0.95%). The levels of the indicators mentioned above increased substantially during hospitalization (all P < .05). Fourteen (13.33%) patients developed liver injury. Most of them (10, 71.43%) recovered after 8 (range 6-21) days. Notably the other, 4 (28.57%) patients rapidly progressed to acute-on-chronic liver failure. The proportion of severe COVID-19 was higher in patients with liver injury (P = .042). Complications including acute-on-chronic liver failure, acute cardiac injury and shock happened more frequently in patients with liver injury (all P < .05). The mortality was higher in individuals with liver injury (28.57% vs 3.30%, P = .004). CONCLUSION: Liver injury in patients with SARS-CoV-2 and chronic HBV coinfection was associated with severity and poor prognosis of disease. During the treatment of COVID-19 in chronic HBV-infected patients, liver function should be taken seriously and evaluated frequently.

Coagulopathy of Patients with COVID-19 is Associated with Infectious and Inflammatory Markers.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 infection activates coagulation and stimulates innate immune system. Little is known about coagulopathy and response of inflammation and infection in ICU patients with COVID-19. Derangement of coagulation and markers of infection and inflammation induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection, as well as their correlations were elucidated. METHODS: One hundred eight ICU patients with COVID-19 (28 survivors and 80 non-survivors) in Tongji hospital and Wuhan Jinyintan hospital, in Wuhan, China were included. Coagulation parameters, infectious and inflammatory markers were dynamically analysed. The correlation between coagulopathy of patients and infectious and inflammatory markers was verified. RESULTS: SARS-CoV-2-associated coagulopathy occurred in most cases of critical illness. Raised values of d-dimer and FDP were measured in all patients, especially in non-survivors, who had longer PT, APTT, INR, as well as TT, and lower PTA and AT compared to survivors. SIC and DIC mostly occurred in non-survivors. CRP, ESR, serum ferritin, IL-8, and IL-2R increased in all patients, and were much higher in non-survivors who had significantly higher levels of IL-6 and IL-10. D-dimer was positively associated with CRP, serum ferritin (p = 0.02), PCT (p < 0.001), and IL-2R (p = 0.007). SIC scores were positively correlated with CRP (p = 0.006), PCT (p = 0.0007), IL-1ß (p = 0.048), and IL-6 (p = 0.009). DIC scores were positively associated with CRP (p < 0.0001), ESR (p = 0.02), PCT (p < 0.0001), serum ferritin (p < 0.0001), IL-10 (p = 0.02), and IL-2R (p = 0.0005). CONCLUSION: Prothrombotic state, SIC, and DIC are the characteristics of coagulation in ICU patients with COVID-19. CRP, ESR, serum ferritin, IL-8, IL-2R, IL-6, and PCT were stimulated by SARS-CoV-2 infection. CRP, PCT, serum ferritin, and IL-2R indicate the coagulopathy severity of patients with COVID-19.

Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II Score as a Predictor of Hospital Mortality in Patients of Coronavirus Disease 2019.

OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease 2019 has emerged as a major global health threat with a great number of deaths in China. We aimed to assess the association between Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score and hospital mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019, and to compare the predictive ability of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and Confusion, Urea, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, Age 65 (CURB65) score. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort. SETTING: Tongji Hospital in Wuhan, China. SUBJECTS: Confirmed patients with coronavirus disease 2019 hospitalized in the ICU of Tongji hospital from January 10, 2020, to February 10, 2020. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Of 178 potentially eligible patients with symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019, 23 patients (12.92%) were diagnosed as suspected cases, and one patient (0.56%) suffered from cardiac arrest immediately after admission. Ultimately, 154 patients were enrolled in the analysis and 52 patients (33.77%) died. Mean Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (23.23 ± 6.05) was much higher in deaths compared with the mean Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score of 10.87 ± 4.40 in survivors (p < 0.001). Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score was independently associated with hospital mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01-1.13). In predicting hospital mortality, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score demonstrated better discriminative ability (area under the curve, 0.966; 95% CI, 0.942-0.990) than Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (area under the curve, 0.867; 95% CI, 0.808-0.926) and CURB65 score (area under the curve, 0.844; 95% CI, 0.784-0.905). Based on the cut-off value of 17, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score could predict the death of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 with a sensitivity of 96.15% and a specificity of 86.27%. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the survivor probability of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score less than 17 was notably higher than that of patients with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score greater than or equal to 17 (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score was an effective clinical tool to predict hospital mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 compared with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and CURB65 score. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score greater than or equal to 17 serves as an early warning indicator of death and may provide guidance to make further clinical decisions.